Fire ArcaneTier 2
at HVN Regional - CM Dunedin
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 14.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Allies | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 52.9% | +2.2 |
| Water Fractal | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 5.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.3% | +9.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Water Genbu | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Water Overlord | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Water Triskit | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 67.5% | +27.9 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Arcane decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erratic Bolt | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fortuitous Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Arcane | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Harness Lightning | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stabilizing Capacitance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zhou Yu, Enlightened Sage | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tome of Knowledge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arcanist's Prism | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Anger the Skies | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm Tyrant's Eye | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Power Overwhelming | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |